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Salmon Survival Report: Smolt to Adult Returns

survival
The drop in Chinook salmon abundance due to lower Snake River dam construction (1962 – 1975) is very apparent.

The Columbia Basin Bulletin:

Weekly Fish and Wildlife News

www.cbbulletin.com

October 13, 2017

Issue No. 847

Draft Salmon Survival Report: Smolt To Adult Returns For Snake River Fish Remain Below NW Power/Conservation Council Goals

The number of wild Snake River adult spring/summer chinook, measured as a percentage of juveniles that left the river and returned as adults (smolt-to-adult returns or SARs), has declined four-fold since the early 1960s and since the four lower Snake River dams were built, according to a report produced by the Fish Passage Center.

In its annual draft Comparative Survival Study, the FPC found that SARs for the wild chinook had fallen from 4.3 percent in the early 1960s to 1.0 percent during the period 1994 – 1999, and since the year 2000 SARs has been at 1.1 percent. The FPC released the Bonneville Power Administration-funded report in late August and is asking for comments from fisheries managers and the public by October 15. The final CSS is scheduled for completion by the end of December.

The study also determined that SARs for Snake River wild steelhead declined nearly four-fold from the 1960s from 7.2 percent (1964 to 1969) to 1.9 percent (1990 to 1999) and 2.5 percent during the 2000 to 2014 period.

Ice Harbor Dam, the lowest of the four dams on the Snake River, was completed in 1961, Lower Monumental in 1969, Little Goose in 1970 and Lower Granite in 1975. In addition, the John Day Dam, a lower Columbia River dam that’s shoe-horned between McNary Dam upstream and The Dalles Dam downstream, was completed in 1968.

“Overall PIT-tag SARs for Snake River wild spring/summer Chinook and wild steelhead fell well short of the Northwest Power and Conservation Council (NPCC) SAR objectives of a 4 percent average for recovery and 2 percent minimum,” the CSS concluded.

The SAR objectives for wild fish from the Snake River system are contained in the Council’s 2014 Fish and Wildlife Program.

— Snake River spring/summer chinook

The Council objective of 2 percent has been achieved in only two migration years for Snake River wild spring/summer chinook from 1994 through 2015. Those years were 1999 and 2008, the CSS report says. The mean for all stocks is 0.84 percent. For all spring/summer chinook stocks, SARs were highest in 2008 and were very low in 2006, 2011, 2014 and 2015. The reintroduced and also unlisted Clearwater River chinook SAR was lower at a mean of 0.53 percent than other Snake River spring/summer chinook stocks.

The estimated overall SARs for Snake River hatchery spring and summer Chinook varied by hatchery and year. In general, the two hatchery summer chinook populations had higher SARs than the hatchery spring chinook populations.
–Dworshak hatchery spring chinook averaged 0.47 percent and did not exceed 2 percent in any year during 1997–2015;
— Rapid River hatchery spring chinook averaged 0.79 percent and exceeded 2 percent in only 1999;
— Catherine Creek hatchery chinook SARs from 2001 through 2015 averaged 0.79 percent and exceeded 2 percent only in 2008;
— McCall hatchery summer chinook averaged 1.18 percent and exceeded 2 percent in four years, 1998–2000 and 2008;
— Imnaha hatchery summer chinook averaged 1.09 percent SARs and exceeded 2 percent in three years — 1999, 2000 and 2008;
— Clearwater Hatchery spring and summer chinook, Sawtooth Hatchery spring chinook and Pahsimeroi Hatchery summer chinook varied by year within a range generally similar to other CSS hatchery chinook groups, the report says. However, SARs for Pahsimeroi Hatchery summer chinook were very low in 2014-2015.

— Snake River Steelhead

The mean SAR for wild Snake River steelhead during the period 1997 to 2014 was 1.6 percent, and exceeded the Council’s 2 percent objective in eight of the 18 migration years. The mean SAR during 2006 to 2014 for the wild A-run group of steelhead (smaller than 28 inches in length) was 2.12 percent, about 32 percent higher than the wild B-run of steelhead at 1.6 percent.

Snake River hatchery steelhead had overall lower SARs than their wild counterparts. Overall, hatchery steelhead SARs were 1.27 percent and significantly exceeded 2 percent only in 2008. Overall SARs were higher for A-run hatchery steelhead than for B-run hatchery steelhead in the years 2008 to 2014, and SARs of Clearwater River hatchery B-run exceeded those from the Salmon River.

“Overall SARs of Snake River wild spring/summer chinook and steelhead are the net effect of SARs for the different routes of in-river passage and juvenile transportation. None of the passage routes have resulted in SARs that met the NPCC SAR objectives for either species. The relative effectiveness of transportation has been observed to decline as in-river conditions and survival rates improve,” the study concludes.

— Snake River Sockeye Salmon

SARs of Snake River hatchery sockeye varied by year and hatchery group during smolt migration years 2009–2015. SARs for Sawtooth sockeye ranged from 0.10 percent to 1.15 percent in the years 2009 through 2015, whereas Oxbow sockeye SARs ranged from 0.39 percent to 2.26 percent (2009–2012). The 2015 SAR for Springfield Hatchery sockeye was 0.0 percent.

“Differences in size at release between Oxbow and Sawtooth may explain some of the between-hatchery difference in SARs, particularly in 2011 and 2012,” the CSS says. “Typically, Oxbow hatchery smolts averaged about 45 grams (1.6 ounces), while Sawtooth hatchery sockeye smolts averaged about 15 g (0.53 oz.), similar in size to natural origin smolts. In 2011 and 2012, Sawtooth Hatchery smolts were smaller than normal, averaging only 8 to 9 g (0.28 to 0.32 oz.).”

The 2015 Springfield hatchery release experienced several fish health problems that affected juvenile survival and SARs, the report says. “Observations by IDFG personnel during release (and at LGR) indicated fish displayed external symptoms of gas bubble disease (fin occlusion, distended bodies and exophthalmia), presumably during transit from the hatchery over Galena Summit to the release site in the Stanley Basin. IDFG hatchery and research staff are working on operational remedies.”

–Snake River Fall Chinook

The inclusion of fall chinook salmon is a work in progress, the CSS says. That’s because it wasn’t until 2010 that the CSS oversight committee received a request to begin their inclusion.

Working with the Nez Perce Tribe, the CSS funded PIT-tag marking in 2015. Some 40,400 subyearling fall chinook were tagged that year. In 2016, 50,000 were tagged and 60,000 were tagged this year. Although migration information existed prior to these PIT-tag releases, future survival estimates will benefit from the tagged fish.

“As a pilot effort, its scope is limited, but will provide some level of information for an entire ESU that currently has no comprehensive marking program to evaluate the effects of transportation on adult return rates,” the CSS says.

Overall SARs to Lower Granite Dam (excluding jacks) for Snake River hatchery subyearling fall chinook were low in three of the seven years analyzed, the report says. Fall chinook overall SARs ranged from 0.12 percent to 0.56 percent for hatchery releases in 2006 and 0.0 percent to 0.3 percent in 2007. The highest SARs were observed for migration years 2008 and 2011 when SARs ranged from 0.30 percent to 1.07 percent.

SARs for 2009 were relatively low as well, with SARs ranging from 0.05 percent to 0.23 percent. For the 2010 migration year, SARs were between the low returns from 2009 and the highest returns from 2008. SARs for 2010 ranged from 0.20 percent to 0.97 percent. For migration year 2012 SARs ranged from 0.40 percent and 0.79 percent.

The “Comparative Survival Study of PIT-tagged Spring/Summer/Fall Chinook, Summer Steelhead, and Sockeye DRAFT 2017 Annual Report,” can be found at http://www.fpc.org/documents/CSS/DRAFT2017CSS.pdf. Comments should be sent by October 15 to Michelle DeHart at mdehart@fpc.org.

The study’s project leader is the FPC’s DeHart, but the report is compiled by the Comparative Survival Study Oversight Committee and the Fish Passage Center. Contributors include Jerry McCann, Brandon Chockley, Erin Cooper and Bobby Hsu of the FPC; Howard Schaller and Steve Haeseker are from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service; Robert Lessard is with the Columbia River InterTribal Fish Commission; Charlie Petrosky is from the Idaho Department of Fish and Game; Eric Tinus, Erick Van Dyke and Adam Storch are from the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife; and Dan Rawding is with the Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife.

Also see:

— CBB, Oct. 6, 2017, “Draft Annual Salmon Survival Study Considers Impacts Of Lower Snake Dam Breaching, More Spill” http://www.cbbulletin.com/439682.aspx

–CBB, June 23, 2017, “Litigants In Salmon BiOp Case Working Together To Develop Court-Ordered Spill-For-Fish Plan In 2018,” http://www.cbbulletin.com/439147.aspx

–CBB, May 19, 2017, “Spill Advocates, Federal Agencies Agree To Status Conference Schedule, Protocol In Salmon BiOp Case,” http://www.cbbulletin.com/438950.aspx

2017 September Snake River fish return summary

Overall Chinook Returns as of 9/29/17:

chinook extinction september
2017 chinook salmon runs decline 50% vs. the 10 year average

2017:  53,044

2016:  103,355

10 year average:  106,942

 

 

Spring Chinook Returns

spring chinook extinction september
2017 Spring Chinook decline 56% vs. the 10 year average

2017:  27,357

2016:  62,050

10 year average:  62,403

 

 

Summer Chinook Returns

summer chinook extinction
2017 Summer Chinook decline 48% vs. the 10 year average.

2017:  8,952

2016:  12,110

10 year average:  17,232

 

 

Fall Chinook Returns (as of 9/29/17, run is still going)

fall chinook extinction
2017 Fall Chinook decline 38% vs. the 10 year average

2017:  16,733

2016:  29,195

10 year average:  27,307

 

 

 

steelhead extinction
2017 Steelhead decline 74% vs. the 10 year average

Steelhead Returns (as of 9/29/17, run is still going)

2017:  21,047

2016:  40,517

10 year average:  82,660

 

 

Sockeye Returns

sockeye extinction
2017 Sockeye returns decline 78% vs. the 10 year average

2017:  228 to Lower Granite Dam, 157 of those made it back to Red Fish Lake.

2016:  815 to Lower Granite Dam, 595 of those made it back to Red Fish Lake.

10 year average:  1,062 to Lower Granite Dam, 690  of those make it back to Red Fish Lake.

 

 

If you are tired of fishing season closures, Southern Resident orca deaths, and your power bill going up, give your local elected officials a call.  They need to know that you want change.  Let them know that the ONLY solution to these problems is to mothball the 4 lower Snake River dams.

Tragedy of the Snake River Commons

August 30, 2017

 

Tragedy of the Snake River Commons

The law locks up both man and woman

Who steals a goose from off the commons

But let’s the greater felon loose

Who steals the commons from the goose.

                                                                                                                                    Old English Proverb

 

A Tragedy Unfolding

In his 2005 bestseller Collapse, Jared Diamond describes how civilizations can quickly end when natural resources have been pushed to the limit, and then disaster—like a prolonged drought—sweeps across the land. For threatened and endangered salmon on the Columbia and Snake Rivers, 2015 was a disaster. An estimated 250,000 Columbia and Snake River adult sockeye salmon died before reaching spawning grounds due principally to high water temperatures. Only 56 Idaho sockeye reached the Sawtooth Basin, while 35 more were trucked from the lower Snake to the hatchery in Eagle, Idaho.  Was 2015 a perfect storm of low water volume and high ambient temperatures, or are sockeye and other Snake River salmon and steelhead species now on an irreversible path to extinction?

Snake River Sockeye

In 2015 the survival rate for juvenile Snake River sockeye from Lower Granite Dam to Bonneville Dam was just 32%.  In 2016 that rate fell to 12%.  Those survival rates do not include further losses below Bonneville Dam due to avian predation and delayed mortality. During 2015 and 2016 a total of 44 wild sockeye returned to Stanley Basin. This year only 227 adult sockeye passed Lower Granite Dam, and as of August 16 a total of 53 sockeye had returned to Stanley Basin fish traps, only 8 of which were wild fish.

Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook

As noted above, 2015 was a disastrous year for spring and summer Chinook in the Columbia Basin. In 2016 the number of these fish that reached the Snake River at Ice Harbor Dam totaled 116,282.  With the 2017 Chinook run over, as of August 29th that number is 44,762, a decline of 62%.

In late July 2017 the Idaho Department of Fish and Game reported adult spring Chinook numbers in Idaho would necessitate extraordinary measures to provide required brood stock to fill Idaho’s hatcheries.

Snake River Steelhead

In 2016 the return of Snake River A-run steelhead was accurately described as dismal, with just 3,400 of these one-salt (one year in ocean) fish having crossed Lower Granite Dam by August 11th compared to a 10-year average of around 5,100 fish. By August 11, 2017, the number of A-run fish that had crossed Lower Granite was 393.  As reported by Eric Barker of the Lewiston Morning Tribune on August 16, 2017,  “the run is amongst the lowest on record at Bonneville, and the lowest ever at Lower Granite Dam on the Snake River.”

Snake River B-run steelhead typically spend two years in the ocean, and due to poor 2015 river and ocean conditions, 2017 was predicted to be a poor year for these steelies. While these fish are just beginning to move up the Columbia, run size predictions are worse than dismal. The number of the once famous wild B-run fish to pass Lower Granite dam is pegged at 770 fish. That prediction may need a downward adjustment.

The Pacific Northwest is currently experiencing a record-breaking heat wave that is impacting river temperatures. The Environmental Protection Agency prescribes a maximum water temperature of 68° F for salmon migration routes, but notes that rivers with “significant hydrologic alterations [like dams and reservoirs] may present additional problems even at 68°.” According to the EPA, multiple scientific studies have concluded water temperature of 70° “can result in severe infections and catastrophic outbreaks” in salmonids. A thermal block to migration begins forming at 71.6°. Water temperatures in the 72°–73.5° range characterize a lethal threshold when fish begin to die.

On August 10, 2017 seven of the eight dams on the lower Snake and lower Columbia had average daily forebay temperatures exceeding 70° F. Water temperatures at two dams were 73.5° F, and at one dam, 74.0° F.  With a thermal block in place, at 73° F the term “poached salmon” takes on an entirely new meaning.

Collapse

When Jared Diamond studied the collapse of entire societies, he learned that societies sometimes fail to perceive a problem “when it takes the form of a slow trend concealed by wide up-and-down fluctuations” sometimes referred to as “creeping normalcy” or, in salmon management, “shifting baselines.” The comparison of a current fish run with the preceding 10-year average provides an example of a shifting baseline that can camouflage a downward trend.

However, even when a significant problem is perceived, a society “often fails even to attempt to solve the problem” stated Diamond, frequently due to clashes of interest among people and special interest groups. “This is particularly the case when a small minority highly motivated by the prospect of profit—and often supported by government subsidies—competes with the majority who individually stand to suffer a relatively small loss insufficient to motivate them to protect their common interest.”  This phenomenon is known as the tragedy of the commons, first described by Garrett Hardin in Science in 1968, wherein the parties who share a common resource find it in their individual best interest to exploit the resource until at some point the resource itself collapses.

In the present context, consider the Snake and Columbia Rivers and their tributaries and the fish therein as a giant, publicly owned commons, which in fact it is. Disaster struck the fish in 2015.  In 2017 the combination of ocean and river conditions has created a fish run collapse. A collapse, says author and passionate salmon advocate David James Duncan, is simply extinction in slow motion.

Simultaneously, the plight of endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales that rely heavily on Columbia Basin salmon for survival share the salmon’s fate.

Who Will Save Idaho’s Threatened and Endangered Salmon and Steelhead?

Despite her tenacity, the Little Red Hen isn’t going to save the Snake River’s wild salmon and steelhead.

State Fish and Game Departments aren’t going to save our salmon and steelhead. These organizations are focused on hatchery production and setting seasons that keep sports anglers buying fishing licenses. In Idaho this year, with as few as 20 wild Clearwater steelhead available for “incidental take,” Idaho Department of Fish and Game is allowing a catch-and-release steelhead season.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (COE) is not going to save our salmon and steelhead.  The Corps builds, operates, maintains and defends dams. For at least the past 20 years this federal agency has done everything possible to maintain the status quo on the lower Snake River. The Walla Walla District prominently highlights on its website the “Outstanding Value to the Nation” of the lower Snake River dams despite being confronted by 10 state and national conservation organizations calling out the Corps’ blatant misinformation in this propaganda piece. Under federal court order, the COE will spend the next 5 years and an estimated $70 million studying dam operations on the lower Snake and Columbia Rivers. The Corps is the agency that will decide whether the Lower Snake River dams should be breached. As was the case in the Corps’ 2002 Snake River Juvenile Salmon Migration Feasibility Study, the fix is already in.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Fisheries won’t save our threatened and endangered salmon and steelhead. This agency has produced twenty years of biological opinions (BiOps) that govern the operation of federal dams on the Columbia and lower Snake Rivers. Three federal judges over the same time period have declared NOAA’s Bi-Ops illegal, in part because NOAA Fisheries has ignored best science and protects the LSR dams at all costs.

The Northwest Power and Conservation Council won’t save our salmon and steelhead.  This agency was created in major part to ensure the protection of anadromous fish in the Columbia River and its tributaries impacted by hydropower dams. The Council is supposed to “consider protection, mitigation, and enhancement of fish and wildlife and related spawning grounds and habitat, including sufficient quantities and qualities of flows for successful migration, survival and propagation of anadromous fish.” While Council members perhaps do “consider” fish protection, their actions make clear the production of hydropower has priority. The Council’s stated vision for its fish and wildlife program tells the tale.  “The vision (an abundance, productive and diverse community of fish and wildlife) will be accomplished by protecting and restoring the natural ecological functions, habitats and biological diversity of the Columbia River System. Where impacts have irrevocably changed the ecosystem, the program will protect and enhance habitat and species assemblages compatible with the altered ecosystem.” (Emphasis added)

The US Fish and Wildlife Service won’t save our wild salmon and steelhead.  This agency “provides a broad and flexible framework to facilitate conservation with a variety of stakeholders.” Thus USFWS lists and delists species and makes recommendations on what should be done to protect T & E species. However, the results are dependent on the actions of a myriad of other state and federal agencies, leaving the USFWS ultimately unaccountable for actual species recovery. Year after year the Smolt-to-Adult Return ratio (SAR) for wild Snake River salmon and steelhead remains below the level required for species maintenance, let alone to avoid extinction. Based on the past 20+ years, the USFWS will “facilitate conservation” until the last Lonesome Larry disappears.

The Bonneville Power Administration won’t save our salmon and steelhead. With a surplus of power in the Pacific Northwest projected well into the future and BPA requesting a rate increase due to the lack of demand for its electricity, the agency continues to support the lower Snake River dams. BPA’s wholesale power price is now $33.75 per megawatt hour, while the price for the same power on the Northwest spot market is under $20. BPA’s financial reserves in 2007 stood at $917 million, and in 2017, just $21 million. Fifteen of the twenty-four turbines in the lower Snake River dams have exceeded their life expectancies, and rehabilitation of just the first three turbines has cost over $100 million to date. Northwest wind energy now produces nearly three times the electricity of all four Lower Snake River dams.  Fully one-third of BPA’s price for power in 2016 is attributable to fish and game mitigation, supporting a failing program. Nevertheless, the agency’s support of the lower Snake River dams remains unwavering.

The Environmental Protection Agency won’t save Snake River salmon and steelhead. This federal agency is responsible for controlling pollution in the nation’s waterways, and temperature is a major pollutant.  In 2003 the EPA completed a draft TMDL (Total Maximum Daily Load) study on the lower Snake River that demonstrated the single significant source of increased water temperature on the river is the solar radiation collected by the reservoirs behind the four dams, with each reservoir raising water temperature by up to 2 degrees Fahrenheit.  Such a finding was anathema to the U.S. Corps of Engineers, the Bonneville Power Administration and the special interest groups that dominate the political support for the dams.  The result was that the draft TMDL was soon buried. Today, fourteen years later, the EPA claims the completion of a final, actionable TMDL for the Snake and Columbia Rivers would be a difficult task requiring several additional years.

Congresswoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers and five of her House colleagues won’t save the Snake River’s salmon and steelhead. These Northwest politicians and their political supporters can’t even get past their belief that our salmon and steelhead are achieving record-breaking runs.  McMorris and her colleagues hope to mute the orders of a federal judge, stop any additional spill of water over the dams to help juvenile fish migrate to the sea, and halt any further alteration of any kind to the LSR dams without Congressional approval. They are betting the public can be duped by propaganda or won’t pay attention to the growing salmon crisis.

The Columbia-Snake River Irrigators Association has proposed a solution to the collapse of our wild salmon and steelhead —let them all die. They propose removing these fish from the protection of the Endangered Species Act and allowing wild fish to become extinct.  Only one dam on the lower Snake, Ice Harbor, provides irrigation, and to fewer than 20 farms.

A comment about ocean conditions is appropriate here. Ocean conditions will emerge on the websites of the agencies and special interest groups that support the continued existence of the lower Snake River Dams as the shorthand explanation for 2017’s collapsing Snake River fish runs. On August 24, 2017 Idaho Department of Fish and Game Clearwater Fisheries Regional Manager Joe Dupont published an analysis lending credence to this position. Dupont included an important caveat to his analysis. “However, I need to emphasize that continued improvements to spawning and rearing habitat and the migratory corridor can make a difference in salmon and steelhead returns. In fact, I would argue that in years like this, if we had better spawning, rearing, and migratory conditions, it could buffer the poor ocean conditions to the point that we could still provide harvest fisheries in Idaho, and wild fish would not be threatened of going extinct.” (Emphasis added) The reader should be aware that Idaho rivers and streams include over 5000 miles of salmon and steelhead spawning and rearing habitat, much of it in pristine condition, leaving the migratory corridor the principal issue. Also noteworthy is the fact the State of Idaho is a co-defendant in the latest legal challenge to the Biological Opinion (BiOp) governing the operation of the dams on the Columbia and lower Snake Rivers.  Idaho is thus defending the status quo on dam operations, which federal Judge Michael H. Simon acknowledged, and the record clearly demonstrates, are imperiling threatened and endangered Idaho salmon and steelhead.

Will anyone save our wild Snake River salmon and steelhead and the orcas of the Salish Sea?

In Collapse, Diamond identifies three approaches that have proven successful in the past to preserve a commons resource.  First, a government can step in to enforce harvest quotas and take other actions necessary to preserve the resource. In the case of Snake River salmon and steelhead, a host of government agencies have spent 20+ years and billions of dollars on the recovery of Snake River threatened and endangered fish. All species continue to decline. The Southern Resident Killer Whales are likewise an endangered species, suffering from a lack of a major portion of their diet, Columbia Basin Chinook salmon.  As noted above, government agencies have devoted much time and treasure to maintaining the status quo on the lower Snake River and continue to do so today.

Privatization of a commons resource is a second possible solution, based on the hope that private owners would take a long-term perspective and be good stewards of the resource in order to protect their own interests. This solution is not possible, however, when the resource cannot be divided, which is the case with migratory fish and game.

A third possible solution, which Diamond acknowledged as the most difficult, requires that consumers of the resource recognize their common interests and actively intercede.  According to Diamond, “That is likely to happen only if a whole series of conditions is met: the consumers form a homogeneous group; they have learned to trust and communicate with each other; they expect to share a common future and to pass on the resource to their heirs; they are capable of and permitted to organize and police themselves; and the boundaries of the resource and of its pool of consumers are well defined.”

If Diamond’s analysis is correct, saving Snake River wild salmon and steelhead requires an aggressive mass movement, most likely originating in the Pacific Northwest, of people who refuse to see our river and ocean commons stripped of the iconic species that help define who we are and where we live. While the removal of the lower Snake River dams is a critical element in Snake River Basin fish recovery and can provide a focus for civil action, returning the lower Snake to a more natural flow will not be sufficient. Needed is an entirely new salmon management effort based not on the failed industrialization of salmon production in concrete tanks but the stitching together of the ecological requirements of salmon and steelhead life cycles.

Meanwhile, the great fisheries commons we call the waters of the lower Snake, the Grande Ronde, the Imnaha, the Clearwater, even the namesake Salmon River itself, is disappearing. The scientific community advises that the warming of the planet will continue to make this situation worse.

Whatever individuals and organizations throughout the Pacific Northwest who care about Snake River salmon and steelhead are now doing is not enough. Whatever supporters of Southern Resident Killer Whales are doing now to protect a critical food source for these orcas is not enough.  Concern without anger is insufficient to save our wild Snake River salmon and steelhead; anger without outrage belittles the truth; outrage without action is a sure path to species extinction.

 

Linwood Laughy       Kooskia, Idaho 83539          lochsalaughy@yahoo.com

It’s time to speak up for salmon

ACTION REQUIRED – PLEASE SPEAK UP BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE!

speak up for salmonBPA has raised power rates 28% in the last eight years! They don’t want to recognize that breaching the four Lower Snake River dams will help REDUCE the cost of power. What’s worse is that the pro-dam lobby and sympathetic politicians in the Northwest have already convinced many Public Utilities in Washington & Oregon to support a radical and misguided House Resolution 3144 now being reviewed & evaluated in congress. Approval of HR 3144 would force administrators to keep the dams, regardless of the science. If your own power rates and wild salmon are important to you, you must ACT NOW.   

This is one of those times when public outcry can actually make an impact.

BPA rates are rapidly increasing and will continue to because of the under performing lower Snake River dams.

With mitigation costs in the billions, vastly more expensive rehabilitation cost on just 3 of the 24 turbines, court ordered spill that reduces power output along with the low seasonal flows that limit their output when demand is greatest, put these 4 dams in a league of losers that are draining funds from more beneficial BPA hydro projects and wasting wind power.

The Pacific Northwest region is energy rich. 

Currently there is a 16% surplus of energy.  Existing wind production is 3 times the average production of the LSR dams.

Dear Cathy McMorris Rodgers

July 12, 2017

 

Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U. S. House of Representatives (WA-05)

Jaime Herrera Beutler, U. S. House of Representatives (WA-3)

Dan Newhouse, U.S. House of Representatives (WA-4)

Kurt Schrader, U. S. House of Representatives (OR-05)

Greg Walden, U. S. House of Representatives (OR-2)

 

Greetings:

 

You recently sponsored a bill in the U. S. House of Representatives designed to protect the operation of the four lower Snake River (LSR) dams from environmental review and stop implementation of a scientifically-proven means (spill) of aiding threatened and endangered salmon and steelhead. Your statements in the press release addressing this bill, posted on McMorris Rodgers’ website, demonstrate either a lack of knowledge about the LSR dams or an attempt to deceive your constituents, colleagues in Congress and all Americans. Here are facts of which you are hopefully aware.

 

Hydropower

Those who wish to mislead the public frequently combine the power output of the Columbia River with that of the Snake, purposely failing to acknowledge that the LSR dams contribute little to the Northwest’s power supply. These four dams provide less than 4% of the electricity in the Pacific Northwest power grid and only 6.5% of the Northwest’s hydropower. They produce much of their power when demands for electricity and market price are both low.

 

PNW wind energy capacity is now three times greater than the combined capacity of all 4 LSR dams. The Pacific Northwest enjoys a surplus of energy, at times requiring wind turbines to be shut down and electricity to be exported at a negative price.

 

Savings in energy costs related to fish mitigation alone justifies breaching the LSR dams.

 

Navigation

Freight transport on the LSR’s four reservoirs has declined by more than 50% over the past 20 years.  Barges no longer carry logs, lumber, paper, pulp, or pulse. Even grain volume, which makes up over 90% of all freight, has declined 45% over the same period.

 

Every barge of grain that leaves the Port of Lewiston carries a taxpayer subsidy of over $20,000 to pay for channel dredging, navigation operations and maintenance. This figure does not include the many millions of dollars spent every few years on major lock rehabilitation. Commercial navigation on the LSR principally provides government-subsidized transportation of a government-subsidized crop.

 

Flood Control

The LSR dams are run-of-the-river dams that provide no flood control. Lower Granite dam actually creates flood risk to the principal city on the waterway—Lewiston, Idaho.  The arrival at the confluence of the Snake and Clearwater Rivers of over 2 million cubic yards of sediment each year perpetually adds to that flood risk and creates additional future costs to be borne by federal taxpayers.  Flood control as justification for maintaining the LSR dams is a false claim.

 

Irrigation

Only one reservoir in the LSR dam complex — behind Ice Harbor Dam— provides irrigation for between 13-17 land owners/farms on one-third the acreage the Corps of Engineers projected in claiming benefits for the LSR project. Water would still be available if Ice Harbor were breached, but at a higher (non-subsidized) cost. Irrigation as justification for maintaining the LSR dams is a weak argument that applies to a single dam.

 

Juvenile Fish Migration

Among the more egregious of the false claims made in the press release addressing the proposed legislation is that of the survival of Snake River juvenile salmon and steelhead through the 8-dam Columbia/Snake River complex.  The oft-repeated statement “an average of 97% of young salmon successfully make it past the dams” belies a juvenile fish survival rate through the dams and reservoirs of about 54% for wild Chinook and 45% for wild steelhead. Further losses then occur below Bonneville Dam due to avian predation and delayed mortality caused by the rigors of dam passage. In 2015 the juvenile survival rate Lower Granite to Bonneville for the Snake River’s most endangered fish, Idaho’s sockeye salmon, was 32%. In 2016 this rate declined farther to a mere 12%. The 97% claim is false. Repeating it constitutes political hucksterism.

 

In 2013, NOAA Fisheries acknowledged that no juvenile fish passage survival improvement had occurred over the previous 13 years—despite the expenditure of over $700 million on just the 4 lower Snake River dams for so-called “fish passage improvements.”  Stated NOAA: “Chinook survival through the hydropower system has remained relatively stable since 1999 with the exception of lower estimates in 2001 and 2004.” No significant change has occurred in the past four years. Claiming otherwise is lying.

Adult Salmon Returns

As with hydropower, LSR dam supporters deceive the public by using data for the combined Columbia/Snake system, purposely ignoring the vast differences in fish numbers in these two rivers. As sponsors of the House Bill in question, you likewise employ this deception in claiming the achievement of “record fish returns.”

Historically, the Snake River produced an estimated half or more of all the anadromous fish in the Columbia Basin. However, in 2014 just 14% of the Chinook counted at Bonneville Dam were Snake River fish. For Coho the percentage was 6%, for sockeye it was less than half of one percent. The same pattern held in 2015 at 15%, 3.5%, and 2/10ths of one percent. Claiming that salmon numbers at Bonneville Dam provide meaningful and honest information about fish numbers on the Snake River, let alone about the Snake’s threatened and endangered salmon and steelhead, is beyond the pale.

In 2015, 99% of adult Snake River sockeye died before reaching their spawning grounds. The Idaho Fish and Game Department has predicted 2017 and 2018 will see steelhead returns lower than those in the 1980s, with the Clearwater River’s once famous wild B-run steelhead numbers predicted to be a mere 1000 fish in 2017.

The true measure of successful recovery of threatened and endangered fish species is the smolt-to-adult return (SAR) ratio. Mere survival (non-extinction) of wild fish species requires a minimum 1% SAR, while recovery of Snake River salmon and steelhead requires a 2%-6% SAR. From 1993-2013 the SAR for wild Chinook salmon averaged .89%. The return exceeded the minimum 2% SAR needed for recovery during only 2 of those 20 years. Idaho’s Snake River sockeye are on the brink of extinction. No Snake River threatened and endangered salmon or steelhead species is on a path to recovery.

The claim of “record runs of fish” in a bill designed to maintain the status quo on the lower Snake River is deliberate deception.

The High Cost of Failure

Several other statements you have made about the LSR dams fall beyond this communiqué—for example, your twisted claim that science should govern dam operations rather than politics while you undertake to assure that politics continue to defy science. However, one additional topic must be addressed. While I question your claim that “one-third of our electric bills pay for fish passage,” we do know the cost to taxpayers and ratepayers of supporting mostly failing salmon and steelhead recovery in the Snake and Columbia Rivers has topped $15 billion. As noted above, at least $700 million has been spent just on “system improvements” designed to increase the rate of juvenile fish passage on the four LSR dams. However, overall juvenile fish survival rates have not improved over the past 20 years, smolt-to-adult wild fish returns remain below the level needed to avoid species extinction, and no Snake River threatened and endangered species is on a path to recovery. Three federal judges over a twenty-year period have declared plans for the operation of the federal dams on the Columbia and Snake Rivers illegal.  Despite all of this information, you 5 Northwest members of the U. S. House of Representatives, who claim to be fiscal conservatives, have sponsored a bill to continue pouring more taxpayer and ratepayer money into an atrociously expensive, flawed and failed experiment that is destroying two of the Pacific Northwest’s most iconic species —Pacific salmon and Southern Resident Killer Whales— while inflicting economic hardship on small communities from the Pacific Coast to the interior of Idaho.

A boondoggle is defined as “a wasteful or pointless activity that gives the appearance of having value; “ and “a public project of questionable merit that typically involves political patronage and graft.”

The lower Snake River dams meet both definitions. Your referenced House Bill does as well.

 

Linwood Laughy        Kooskia, Idaho      lochsalaughy@yahoo.com

Idaho scrambling to fill hatchery quotas of spring chinook

hatchery
Idaho Spring Chinook in Trouble

Idaho Fish & Game Scrambling to Fill Hatchery Quotas of Spring Chinook

Abysmal run of fish to Clearwater River prompts use of nets and elite anglers to gather broodstock for hatcheries

By Eric Barker of the Lewiston Tribune

Idaho Fish and Game officials are taking some extraordinary measures to help ensure hatcheries on the Clearwater River aren’t short of adult spring chinook.
Regional Fisheries Manager Joe DuPont said the hatcheries collectively are about 1,500 fish short of the goals for adult returns, known as broodstock. To help close the gap, department employees will use nets to try to capture spring chinook that return to the South Fork of the Clearwater River. They have also recruited help from anglers on the Clearwater’s North Fork to assist with the effort.
This year’s spring chinook run fell well short of preseason predictions. Returns to the Clearwater River and its tributaries were so low that biologists feared hatcheries might not make their spawning goals, and the fishing season was closed early. Although there is still time for hatchery chinook to return to hatcheries, those fears are starting to play out.

Adult hatchery chinook returning to Red River, a tributary of the South Fork, are collected at a trap on the river and later trucked to hatcheries. It is common for many of the fish to stop short of the trap and instead spend time in deep pools.
“They have done a lot of habitat work with log jams and the fish just kind of hang in there, and a lot of the hatchery fish never go up (to the trap),” DuPont said.

He said department employees used nets in those pools this week with the goal of capturing about 150 chinook. They caught 99 and will return next week for another round of captures.
On the North Fork, the department has recruited a small group of elite anglers to catch adult spring chinook. Those that are caught will be moved to Dworshak National Fish Hatchery at Ahsahka.
DuPont said it’s still possible the hatcheries will meet spawning goals despite the present shortfall. Adult chinook will continue to be trapped at Dworshak Hatchery. Rapid River Hatchery near Riggins has surpassed its return goal, so some of those fish can be moved to hatcheries on the Clearwater.
DuPont said the department also is likely to trap more summer chinook on the Lochsa River than is needed for spawning. Summer chinook in the Lochsa return about a month later than spring chinook but spawn about the same time, in late August and early September. The extra Lochsa fish can take up any hatchery space left vacant by the low return of spring chinook. However, the summer chinook would not be spawned with the springers. Instead, they would be segregated within hatcheries.
“Hopefully we don’t need to do that, but it’s an option,” DuPont said. “We’d rather have the hatchery full of something rather than nothing.”

Steelhead numbers even lower than forecast

Fish counts at Bonneville Dam below that of 2016

steelhead
Are we looking at a collapse of steelhead?

By Eric Barer of the Lewiston Tribune

July 14, 2017

By all accounts, 2017 was never supposed to be a banner year for steelhead

The A-run is forecast to be a little better than last year’s dismal return – which some biologists called a complete year-class collapse – but still well below average. The B-run is expected to be terrible.

It’s too early to freak out, but counts of steelhead passing Bonneville Dam already are lagging behind those of 2016. Steelhead from the A-run, those that tend to spend just one year in the ocean, are arriving now and will be followed by the B-run in late August and September.From June 1 through Tuesday, just shy of 4,000 steelhead had passed the dam. Last year, one of the worst on record for the A-run, more than 20,000 steelhead passed the dam in the same time period.

“If the counts don’t improve and we go along for three more weeks like we have been, then it’s time to start telling people this year is bad and it might be worse than we forecast, but we are nowhere near there yet,” said Alan Byrne, an Idaho Department of Fish and Game fisheries biologist at Boise. “The counts could still improve. The facts of the matter are the Bonneville counts are way below what our average counts are this time of year. But we are only a couple of weeks into the run. We won’t know the strength of the run until the first week of August.”

The preseason forecast calls for a return of 112,100 A-run steelhead to Bonneville Dam, including 33,000 wild fish and 79,100 hatchery fish. Those steelhead will be bound for various parts of the Columbia Basin, and about 50 percent of them are expected to head up the Snake River and pass over Lower Granite Dam.

Fisheries managers are expecting only 7,300 B-run steelhead to pass Bonneville Dam, including just 1,100 wild fish. About 70 percent of them are expected to return to the Snake River, which works out to about 4,340 hatchery and 770 wild Bs at Lower Granite Dam.

“We were fully expecting a very down B-run and not that great of an A-run, but better than last year,” said Joe DuPont, regional fisheries manager for the Idaho Department of Fish and Game. “Now it makes me a little uneasy.”

While the numbers of A-run steelhead counted at Bonneville are depressing, DuPont said there may be a glimmer of hope when you single out Idaho-bound hatchery fish. The numbers show the early part of the run is about average compared to those since 2010. But he cautioned the math is based on just two hatchery fish implanted with PIT tags that have passed Bonneville.

“What bothers me more is the big picture, when it’s more than just Idaho fish, when you are looking at all steelhead, counts over Bonneville are way down,” DuPont said.

State of the Snake 07/17/17

The State of the Snake River

It’s the middle of July, 2017.  How is the salmon migration going?  A few lawmakers in the Pacific Northwest have been telling us how great the salmon recovery is going and how valuable the four lower Snake River dams are to the nation.  Let’s take a look at the numbers, as reported by the Fish Passage Center (fpc.org).

Salmon returns to Lower Granite dam, the uppermost of the four lower Snake dams are as follows:

state of the snake
Thus far, Chinook salmon runs in the Snake River have been dismal.

Spring Chinook

2017:  27,357  (44% of 10 year average)

2016:  62,050

10 yr avg:  62,403

Summer Chinook

2017:  7,488  (50% of 10 year average)

2016:  9,388

10 yr avg:  15,008

state of the snake
Sockeye runs are even worse.

Sockeye salmon

2017:  179  (26% of 10 year average)

2016:  682

10 yr avg:  699

Hmmmm… don’t see any records here.

Down at Ice Harbor dam, the farthest downstream of the four lower Snake dams, the yearly steelhead run is starting.  Maybe we’ll see some records there.

state of the snake
Steelhead runs are barely noticeable.

Steelhead

2017:  1,443  (15% of 10 year average)

2016:  4,240

10 yr avg:  9,688

Wow, definitely not a record.  Unless you are talking about record lows.

state of the snake
Water temperatures at Lower Granite dam hit 68+ F. This is not good for salmon.

What does the future hold?

So, should we expect a recovery this year?  Probably not.  Temperatures in the Snake River at Lower Granite dam have hit 78 F on the surface already, and are 68 F at a depth of 20 m where the water is drawn for the fish ladders.  Salmon like cool water and this hot water slows their migration and can even cause death. Attempts by the Army Corps of Engineers to keep the water below 68 F have been unsuccessful.  Dworshak dam on the Clearwater River is normally used to cool the Snake River by passing water through it’s turbines.

This year those efforts are hampered because the largest turbine is out of service.

state of the snake
Temperatures at Ice Harbor are over 70 F

If they spill water instead, it drives up the dissolved gas levels which can be toxic to salmon and steelhead, especially juveniles.  So the Corps faces a dilemma… spill water to cool the adult salmon in the Snake River but potentially poison all the juvenile fish at the Dworshak fish hatchery, or not spill water to save the hatchery juveniles but potentially kill the adults migrating in the Snake.

 

It’s a rotten situation that the US Army Corps has placed itself and the salmon in.  There is still one alternative that the Corps has, but is unwilling to try.  That would be Alternative 4 in the 2002 EIS, the EIS under which they are currently operating the dams.  Alternative 4 involves drawing down the reservoirs and returning the Snake to a free flowing river.  It is the only way to save the Pacific Northwest’s salmon.  But the US Army Corps of Engineers seems perfectly content with allowing the extinction of the remaining salmon and steelhead stocks.

Rising temperatures threaten lower Snake River salmon

temperatures
Steadily rising water temperatures in 2017 threaten salmon

July 2017

July has been a rough month so far for endangered salmon and steelhead migrating through the lower Snake River.  High air temperatures and lack of cloud cover have heated the reservoirs behind the four lower Snake River dams to 68 degrees and beyond.  At such high water temperatures, the salmon migration slows and it can cause mass mortality (remember 2015?).  Water temperatures on July 12th were 3 degrees higher than in 2016 and the 10 year average.  And they were equal to 2015.

Dworshak

In the past, Dworshak dam on the Clearwater River has been used to supply cold water that mixes with Snake River water to bring the temperatures down.  But that is not entirely possible in 2017.  Dworshak can release water in two ways:  one is to discharge it through the turbines and the other is to spill it through or over the dam.  If water is discharged through the turbines, it does not add considerable dissolved gases to the water.  But spilling water does increase the dissolved gas content and it if not monitored, can cause salmon and steelhead mortality.  Juvenile fish, like those in the Dworshak National Fish Hatchery just below the dam, are particularly susceptible to Gas Bubble Trauma (GBT).  The Nez Perce Tribe and the US Fish and Wildlife Service operate this hatchery.

The Problem

The US Army Corps of Engineers has been working on turbine 3, the largest of the turbines at Dworshak, for many months.  Work was supposed to be completed earlier this year.  But the contractor doing the work made an error and now the turbine is not expected to be operational until 2018.  So this leaves the US Army Corps in a bind.  Do they spill water to keep the river cool but poison the juvenile fish at the hatchery?  Or limit spill to a certain level and let the river heat up?  Total Dissolved Gas (TDG) limits are set by the state to protect fish.  A waiver has been issued by Idaho to allow the dam to spill more water and inject higher TDG levels into the river.  But thus far these higher levels of spill have not been able to keep the river below 68 F.

temperature
The decline of Snake River salmon.

The Solution

Endangered Snake River salmon and steelhead are already in dire straits.  Their numbers dropped precipitously when the four lower Snake dams were built in the 1960’s and 70’s.  This landed them on the Endangered Species List.  Billions of dollars have been spent to recover them, but it has not worked.  In 2015, hundreds of thousands of adult salmon and steelhead died in the Snake and Columbia Rivers due to heat stress.  Over 50% of the juveniles headed to the ocean died that year on their way to the ocean.   With so few juveniles making it to the ocean, very few adults are returning this year.  There is only one solution to this problem.  At the very least, Lower Granite reservoir needs to be drawn down THIS YEAR.  And the remaining three dams in subsequent years.  Without this urgent action, Snake River salmon and steelhead don’t stand a chance.

Sockeye & Steelhead return to Bonneville dam 07/03/17

Spring Chinook Salmon

The spring Chinook run is over at Bonneville dam.  The final tally:

2017:  83,624

2016:  137,215

10 yr avg:  150,783

Summer Chinook Salmon

Summer returns are now in progress at Bonneville dam:

2017:  63,253

2016:  81,652

10 yr avg:  69,802

As if those numbers were not depressing enough…

Sockeye Salmon

sockeye
I wonder if any of these sockeye will make the journey to Idaho this year…

The sockeye salmon run is well underway.  Current returns at Bonneville dam:

2017:  67,621

2016:  300,833

10 yr avg:  239,986

At this point, 2017 is at 22% of 2016 and 28% of the 10 year average.

Steelhead

steelhead
Where are the steelhead?

Steelhead returns at Bonneville dam have also begun:

2017:  5,389

2016:  16,420

10 yr avg:  17,085

These returns are less than a third of 2016 and the 10 year average returns.

Whatever the federal agencies are doing to save salmon, it’s not working.  Time to exercise Alternative 4 in the 2002 FR/EIS (breaching).  And the sooner the better.